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Some curious questions about (quite) a few fictional scenarios......

Discussion in 'History & Military Discussion' started by HeavyArmor, Dec 15, 2016.

  1. HeavyArmor

    HeavyArmor Trust me, I'm an Engineer

    Location:
    Malaysia
    Here's the first:

    One day in 2017, a fictional country had received intel indicating a group of terrorists are staging a offensive on one of their border outposts.

    The terrorists had recently launched a failed coup attempt on a neighbouring country, and manage to expand it's ranks with former military personals and looted quite a few armories.

    The terrorist's order of battle includes:
    1000 foot soldiers (mostly armed mob militias lead by competent renegade former military officers)
    30 T-64 Main Battle Tanks
    40 BMP-1 Infantry Fighting Vehicle
    40 Technicals modified from military trucks
    12 ZSU-23-4 Self-Propelled-Anti-Air-Gun
    12 ZSU-57-2 Self-Propelled-Anti-Air-Gun

    The Terrorist staging point is a large encampment in the middle of a savanna. The armored fighting vehicles are operated by competent renegade former military personals.

    Said country decided to mount a cross border air raid on the terrorist staging point before the terrorist strikes.

    The strike force includes:
    14 BAE Hawk 200 (Armed with an ADEN cannon, 3 19-round CRV7 rocket pods, 4 AGM-65 Maverick missiles)
    4 KC-130J Tanker
    1 EC-130H Compass Call

    The strike force commence the raid exactly at midnight just the day before the Terrorist decide to move out. All their vehicles are fully fueled and armed. No vehicles are started up, and their crews are sleeping soundly just beside their vehicles. 85% of the foot infantries are also sleeping at that time.

    But due to an intelligence leak, the terrorist commander received a 5 minute warning prior to the air raid......




    How much damage do you think this air raid could cause to the Terrorists?
     
  2. ussnimitz1968

    ussnimitz1968 Not an Actual Servicemember

    This is an extremely specific question down to an equally specific OoB. You're really looking for someone who got paid as a profession to look into this, or someone who has obsessively studied something like this. I mean, there's a lot of battle planning that goes into it to determine what targets to strike for maximum effect other than just telling your pilots "yeah just hit whatever's most opportune at that exact moment" which works under two circumstances: the best intel you absolutely have is extremely poor, and in Ace Combat.

    Not to mention the loadout is a bit bizarre and sub-optimal - I'd go for weapons with greater area effect or if you can't use cluster munitions for some reason (most likely by treaty) I might actually try for dumb bombs. Really, you're not really all that interested in destroying as much equipment as so much as just killing as many enemy combatants as possible, and putting a huge dent in those "angry mobs" would severely limit their ability to stage raids.

    That said, 5 minutes may be enough time to alert the AA crews that would put a serious damper on the ability to drop dumb bombs unhindered. Maybe you'd want to send some assets ahead (even helicopters just like in Desert Storm) to specifically take care of them.
     
  3. Kingpoleon

    Kingpoleon Chairman of the AH.com NG government-in-exile

    Location:
    Arkansas
    The damage would be near total if the anti aircraft gunners weren't warned first. Otherwise, anywhere from an eighth to two fifths of either the troops or the tanks. I imagine the actual losses would would be something like:
    ~350 Ground Troops
    ~18 Tanks
    ~55 Other Vehicles
    ~All but 3 or 4 Anti Aircraft Guns
     
  4. 7734

    7734

    Location:
    Philmont
    Questions, here.

    1: Why arn't the Hawks hauling balls-to-the-walls Rockeyes or just iron bombs? That way, the plan would be "Here's the camp, blast the shit out of it, come back for lunch and rearmament for this evenings repeat performance at night when they can't see you"
    2: How well equiped are the mobs?
    3: The fuck's a poor man's AWACS doing here?

    Why are you setting up what look like a really big bush war? I can tell you now the 57-2 are next to useless unless the 23-4 can get them an angle of approach. The airstrike itself is liable to be a total success, and the next obvious move would be to then load up on your standoff weapons and nailanything that is emitting.
     
  5. ussnimitz1968

    ussnimitz1968 Not an Actual Servicemember

    Would you be able to provide the reasoning as to how a bunch of jets poorly equipped for anti-personnel operations (indeed, very heavily biased towards anti-armor for some bizarre reason) are able to achieve that?

    Or how they got it in the first place. A Compass Call isn't something the US typically exports.
     
  6. 7734

    7734

    Location:
    Philmont
    This makes no sense. Rockets are anti-armor and anti-vehicle, and the entire flight is only hauling 800~ rockets and 76 Mavericks, and you're calling for them to get nearly a hundred hits. 1/8 is not a large number... until you look at CAS figures from the last time guns and unguided rockets were used (WWII) and realize they were lucky if they got 1/15 or 1/20 rocket accuracy ratios. There's no way the flight's going to nail enough of the AA to handle the issue of ground fire, and the 23-4 can shoot-n-scoot real damn good. Remember, those AA teams are not scrubs and they do have enough warning to warm the magnetos and start the engines. Civilian trucks normally have a dead-stop to 25mph time of 20 secs, so if the OPFOR commander is smarter than your average Terrorist Ali then he will have those technicals running for the hills. Likewise, this is an encampment which is a polite way of saying it probably has some entrenchment. My guess as to the end will be as such, keeping in mind the pilot's orders are likely to the tune of "keep them from preforming an armored assault"

    TERRORIST LOSSES
    -100 to 150 infantry (Mostly lost to shrapnel/stupid)
    -20 to 25 T-64 MBTs (Main target, these guys get the missiles.)
    -10 to 12 BMP-1 IFV (Secondary targets, eats rockets)
    -2 to 5 Technicals (They left, might have gotten gun runned if at all possible)
    -4 to 8 ZSU-23-4 SPAAG (Pilot's first target, anything that looks like flak)
    -8 to 12 ZSU-57-2 SPAAG (Pilots first target, anything that looks like flak. These hold still to shoot and eat rockets.)

    "LEGIT" FRIENDLY COUNTRY LOSSES
    -4 to 6 BAE Hawks (Ground fire from subsequent passes after initial run)

    I'm fairly sure we exported some sort of prop-hauled not-AWACS built off a Piper Cub for a while, but it was fairly neutered compared to the big swinging dishes we like to park everywhere.
     
  7. ussnimitz1968

    ussnimitz1968 Not an Actual Servicemember

    The (SAAB?) ERIEYE system seems popular and Boeing has had much success exporting the Wedgetail system, so I guess there you go? Granted these are not big rotating dishes, though. Based on what I just read off Tyler Rogoway regarding E-2D Advanced Hawkeye, that's an impressive system and I suspect at the very least it's possible E-3 Sentry can be upgraded to the same standard if it doesn't already meet or exceed that.
     
  8. confusopoly

    confusopoly Metaphor Overextended. Ow.

    The Compass Call is a dedicated offensive ECM and ELINT bird, not an AWACS. I have not the slightest idea why you would want to bring one of those to an engagement like this. Try to blind the radars on the SPAAGs maybe?
     
  9. ussnimitz1968

    ussnimitz1968 Not an Actual Servicemember

    *shrug* don't ask me, ask the OP? Though I've heard stories of Compass Call being used to intercept cell/radio signals and even disable IEDs?
     
  10. 7734

    7734

    Location:
    Philmont
    Asking HeavyArmor's scenarios to make sense is like asking vatniks to build a pure carrier.

    Ain't happening.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
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